UK sees largest annual jump in estimated population size since 1971

The UK population has seen its largest annual increase in size since comparable data began in the early 1970s, new figures suggest.

Net international migration was the main contributor to the jump, while deaths outnumbered births for the first time – outside the Covid-19 pandemic – in nearly five decades.

The population is estimated to have risen by 1.0% in the year to June 2023, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This is the largest annual percentage increase since 1971, when the current series of mid-year estimates began, and follows a rise of 0.9% in the year to mid-2022.

This is also the biggest annual numerical increase since 1971.

Net international migration – the difference between the number of people arriving in the UK and leaving – is currently estimated at 677,300 for the year to mid-2023 and was the “main contributor to population increase for all four countries of the UK”, the ONS said.

There were an estimated 16,300 more deaths than births across the UK in the year to mid-2023.

With the exception of the Covid-19 pandemic year of 2020, this is the first time since the mid-1970s there has been a negative natural change in the population, with more deaths taking place than births.

Natural change was last negative in 1976 – though this is based on year-end data, rather than mid-year data used in the calculation of population estimates, the ONS added.

Professor Sarah Harper, director of the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, said the negative natural change is “not unexpected”.

She said: “Given the low childbearing rate currently in the UK, and the large post-war birth cohorts who have benefited from longer lives now entering old age, the number of deaths we expect will increase each year over time as this generation of older adults ages and dies.”

Is it also more than four million higher than the figure of 64.1 million a decade earlier in mid-2013.

All estimates are likely to be revised within the next year as new data becomes available and improvements to estimates of international migration continue to be made, the ONS added.

The latest figures suggest the population grew faster in the year to mid-2023 in England and in Wales (both 1.0%) than in Scotland (0.8%) or Northern Ireland (0.5%).

This was the highest rate of annual growth for England, Wales and Scotland since comparable data began in 1971, while for Northern Ireland it was the highest since mid-2019.

Scotland and Wales both saw a higher number of deaths than births in the 12 months to June 2023, with an estimated 65,100 deaths in Scotland compared with 46,000 births, and 37,100 deaths in Wales compared with 27,600 births.

By contrast, England saw slightly more births (570,700) than deaths (560,900), as did Northern Ireland (20,100 births, 17,600 deaths).