- Jersey’s population has risen to more than 100,00 for first time
- Business owner David Warr says that growing numbers are sign of healthy economy
- Read the online reaction from our Facebook users below
- Is Jersey overcrowded? Take part in our poll below
HOW many people should live in Jersey?
It is a divisive question that cannot easily be answered, but debate about the population often reveals tensions that bubble away under the surface of our community.
According to new estimates Jersey’s population is thought to be 100,800, having reached six figures for the first time.
With around 100,800 people living on approximately 45 square miles of land, Jersey has a population density of roughly 2,240 people per square mile.
But what about other jurisdictions?
- Singapore 19,725/sq mile
- Guernsey 2,170/sq mile
- Dubai 1,359/sq mile
- Isle of Man 362/sq mile
- Cayman Islands 549/sq mile[/breakout]
Current policy, and the figure used by States departments to plan for the future, sets out that annual net inward migration – the difference between the number of people arriving and those leaving – should be maintained at 325 people per year.
However, records of the numbers of incoming residents show that that target, in recent years, has not been met.
For the past two years net inward migration has come in at around 600 people per year.
But administering the Island’s population is not a straightforward process.
Senior politicians have stated that there is a need for controlled expansion in order to grow the economy.
While an increasing population places more pressure on essential infrastructure such as roads, schools and healthcare, it is also necessary to bring in essential employees and workers prepared to take on low-paid jobs.
Business leaders – especially those in retail and hospitality – have repeatedly said there is little appetite from local workers to fill the relatively low-paid jobs in certain sectors.
But how can the Island ensure it is not simply importing poverty and increasing the deficit by bringing in more registered (formerly non-qualified) workers than licensed (formerly J-Cat essential) employees who tend to be higher earners?
On Wednesday the States Statistics Unit estimated the population had risen by 1,800 since 2012.
The unit’s report said that 1,200 of that two-year increase was down to net inward migration, with 400 licensed employees and their families and 800 registered workers and their dependants coming to Jersey in that period.
Deputy Geoff Southern has raised concerns that, as well as being impossible to control, inward migration is not generating the tax returns that it should because more low-paid workers are re-locating to Jersey.
Assistant Chief Minister Paul Routier, who has responsibility for administering the population policy, said that many registered workers offered high economic value, working in finance or construction.
And he explained that salary levels did not always reflect the overall value a migrant may bring by working in a healthcare or other care role. ‘Each application is looked at on its own merits in terms of the benefits it brings to the Island and the availability of local workers,’ he said.
‘And most migrants work – more than 90%. They are active and contributing to our economy. They support businesses that also employ local people, helping to provide a wide range of services to the Island.
‘Our policies are right but they will take time. We are serious about getting the balance between inward migration and the needs of businesses right but Islanders need to be clear about the dilemma that we face.
‘We have been told by businesses that they need to be able to recruit outside the Island and some have also complained that we have been too restrictive in giving out licences.
‘In the areas in which we are removing licences we have been working with industries – particularly hospitality – to provide training for local jobseekers so that they are better able to access the jobs which employers have available.’
THE States has cracked down on the issuing of job licences in recent years, tightening its control over unused work permits and the process involved in applying for new ones.
David Warr (pictured), a former Chamber of Commerce president and owner of Cooper and Co coffee merchants, said that trying to keep to inward migration quotas was unrealistic and that a growing population was the consequence of a successful economy.
‘The worst-case scenario is the Alderney scenario where people are leaving and the economy is collapsing.
‘Are we striking the right balance? The reality is we still have plenty of green space, plenty of countryside and we have an urban area, which I would argue, is not overly built up.’
However, Mr Warr said that small businesses often struggled under the restrictions used to monitor employment levels.
‘Government has been very aggressive in saying any licences that aren’t used we are going to take them away,’ he explained.
Cate Hamilton
Yes, the island is overcrowded, us locals have been saying it for YEARS. YES, we MUST control population as we cannot afford to provide hospitals schools, social security and so on as it IS!
Fay Brown
There is only room for so many people don’t make the mistake of Tony Blair and get overrun!
Aimée Hartle
“Do you think the Island is getting overcrowded?” Is that meant to be a serious question? Is water wet?
Andy Jay
We used to moan how crowded it was in the summer with all the tourists. Now it’s WORSE, ALL YEAR AROUND! Yet the politicians still believe that an economy can grow indefinitely, and choose to pursue that impossible dream. Us minority of voters can only despair that so many people let them do this by not voting. The government you deserve!
Douglas Bones McCoy
The idea that perpetually growing the population is necessary to pay for an ageing demographic is a theory and not a fact. Unfortunately, this myth is peddled by those who put profits before the good of society.
Tony Bellows
The idea that perpetually growing the population is necessary to pay for an ageing demographic is actually a form of Ponzi scheme where you need to get more and more new people into Jersey of working age to pay for people already in the scheme.
Amanda Loup-garou Du Feu
Should have followed Australia’s rules along time ago. Restrict who we let in and stick to it. Use prisoners to do the jobs people claim they bring cheap labour in for and let locals have a chance at getting on the property ladders by being able to find decent jobs where being bilingual is not a priority in a English speaking island.
David Ng
There is greater pressure on the hospital with longer waits for appointments and treatment. And we’re asked to save £20M. More work – less funding? Doesn’t make sense.
Neville Harris
Of course there isn’t any point: we still have the sand-dunes to build on; why not cover them with high-rise flats; they could be Jersey’s Kowloon. Then there’s the North Coast: plenty of room there…
Lee Carpenter
