ISLANDERS heading abroad could feel the effects of a developing “super” El Niño weather phenomenon over the coming year – but local forecasters say it is unlikely to have a significant impact on Jersey.
The natural processes that happen every few years sees the warming of sea surface temperatures, typically in the central-east equatorial Pacific, pushing up global temperatures.
Forecasters have warned it could be the strongest one ever recorded and that, alongside the effects of climate change, this year’s El Niño could rival the severity of 1997 which caused floods, droughts, heatwaves, tornadoes and wildfires which led to billions of pounds worth of damage.
However, Justyna Niedospial, a weather forecaster at Jersey Met said: “It is unlikely to have much effect on Islanders. Any effects would more likely be for Islanders planning to travel abroad.
“For example, Australia may experience drier and hotter than average conditions towards the end of this year, whereas Mexico may get more rainfall. But this is all closely linked to other atmospheric processes so nothing is certain.”
She added: “El Niño is the warming phase of a back-and-forth warming and cooling of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which can last between months and years at a time.
“Warmer waters in this part of the Pacific during an El Niño episode can cause a rather complicated pattern of weather conditions such as drought or excessive rainfall, or warmer/cooler than average temperatures.
“These effects are most pronounced for countries bordering the Pacific Ocean, as well as those in the (sub)tropics. For north-western Europe, El Niño usually has little to no effect, especially in the summer months.
“On occasion, it can cause a slightly more unsettled start to the winter here, but this is not a given.”
She explained that, while an EL Niño weather event is a “natural process” rather than the result of climate change, the warming climate is thought to be making them more common.
“It is also making extreme weather events around the world more likely, so
if these coincide with the effects of El Niño (such as drought or excessive rainfall
elsewhere in the world), these extremes can be further amplified,” she said.
