A JERSEY commentator I follow on Twitter welcomed in warm and positive terms the launch the other day of the Council of Ministers’ proposed Common Strategic Policy.
Hmm, I thought, as I unexpectedly found myself strolling through St Catherine’s Woods in the early October sun: wait until you see what they actually intend to do, how they measure policy success and what it’s all going to cost.
So I wasn’t surprised by the headlines a couple of days later warning that tax rises are on the cards to pay for ministers’ aspirations.
What did surprise me when I read the policy document – actually a statement of intent, lacking any ‘how’ that might turn it into a strategy document – was what an admission of past failures it had turned into.
I understand child welfare is a raw and emotive issue here but what community has to make its top priority putting children first? It’s pretty much a given, surely?
At the same time, depending on how you scan the report’s opening graphic, the economy is government’s lowest priority, placed rather counter-intuitively after reducing income inequality and improving living standards.
No, this isn’t setting out to be nit-pickingly critical, but it is nevertheless a disturbing document: ‘We will urgently develop a comprehensive economic framework that will deliver the economic evidence to assess and prioritise how and when we act,’ say ministers.
And: ‘We will work with all sectors of the economy to understand their long-term policy, legislative and resource needs, and we will collaborate with partners to design and implement economic development policies.’
Good grief. What have you been doing since 2007 and the Great Recession? Has no one been listening to the business groups since then or noticing that the economy is flatlining?
In other words, what’s been released is a purely political document designed for local consumption and to show that this Council of Ministers is different and more caring than its predecessors.
Well, fair enough if that’s how you like things done, I suppose, and actions and costings could follow the fair words in next year’s Medium Term Financial Plan.
What worries me, however, is whether you have that much time. Brexit is a huge unknown and all these islands can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
In the meantime, your latest GDP figures and another headline – ‘Black market’ workforce developing in hospitality – indicate that there are significant challenges ahead for Jersey.
Apart from construction, the rest of the economy is static or declining. Economic output has dwindled for the past four years, dropping from five per cent gross value added (GVA) in 2014 to zero per cent last year, while productivity has fallen by a quarter since 2007.
Living standards, as measured by GVA, have fallen by ten per cent in real terms over the past 17 years and, per head, considerably lag behind Guernsey’s.
The other alarming fact is that since 2014 the value of non-finance sectors (excluding the notional rental value of private homes) exceeded the value of financial services. And that gap is widening.
Well, so far so statistical, but what does all this mean? In simple terms, Jersey’s doing much worse than popularly believed (ditto Guernsey, despite some flattering figures to the contrary) and this decline is now an established trend.
It’s why your very own world champion Sand Wizard, Simon Smith, is close to quitting Jersey, forced out by declining numbers of tourists visiting his St Catherine’s pitch and excessive bureaucracy.
If I were a member of your States Assembly, I’d be viewing someone who regularly advises authorities on sand-sculpting in Dubai, the Philippines, Goa and elsewhere as a bit of a canary in a coal mine, if seeking a business barometer.
He’s also a vivid illustration of States chief executive Charlie Parker’s initial observation on civil servants, that ‘I don’t think that staff fully understand the size of the impact of government on the Island’s economy’.
Insisting someone puts up a green dome instead of a white one, adding £2,000 to the cost and rendering the interior so hot it has to be cooled at extra expense, is not business-friendly.
And his is just one illustration of many pettifogging examples of bureaucracy grinding down decent people trying to make a living – just look at what the system did to that chap with the farmhouse and the windows.
I labour this a bit because I wonder what response the islands can make in the event of a Brexit that’s bad for them and, particularly, if the adverse economic trends continue.
Guernsey had ‘a good recession’ in that its response was largely limited to cost-cutting.
Your unemployment crisis required a much stronger policy reaction after 2007, including public investment – so what’s left in the armoury if further action is required?
I think that’s particularly relevant given the debate about how to pay for the £466m new hospital development and the potential £170m raid on the Strategic Reserve or ‘rainy-day fund’.
So while ministers’ desire to ‘put children first’ might win a lot of popular support, it’s not the most appropriate policy at this stage in the cycle – especially while Brexit remains such an unknown.
