With Boris Johnson warning that the Government is heading for a “car crash” Brexit unless it ditches Theresa May’s Chequers plans, what are the possible outcomes from the EU withdrawal process?
THE CHEQUERS OPTION
Agreed by the Cabinet – then including Mr Johnson – in June, Theresa May’s blueprint would see the UK remain in a free trade area with the EU for goods but not services.
UK customs officers would charge different tariffs at the borders for goods bound for the domestic or European markets.
An independent arbitration panel would rule on disputes between the two sides and would be able to refer matters of interpretation of EU law to the European Court of Justice.
After the formal date of Brexit on March 29 2019, the UK would have a 21-month implementation period to prepare for new arrangements coming into place at the end of December 2020. During this time, it would be able to negotiate new free trade agreements with non-EU states.
Who supports it? Theresa May and a majority of Conservative MPs.
Who opposes it? EU negotiator Michel Barnier has said provisions on goods are unworkable, but may be ready to consider further compromise.
Conservative hard Brexiteers denounce it as unacceptable, arguing that a “common rulebook” on goods would make Britain a “vassal state”.
THE FREE TRADE OPTION
Britain would leave the EU single market and customs union and sign up to a free trade agreement similar to that enjoyed by Canada, which covers much trade in goods and some services.
New technology and trusted trader schemes would be used to keep the border open between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
Who supports it? The eurosceptic European Research Group, led by Jacob Rees-Mogg and claiming the support of 60 or more Tory backbenchers, has given backing to this option – often referred to as Canada-plus – which is also Mr Johnson’s preferred outcome.
Who opposes it? The Government argues that a simple free trade deal could disrupt existing trade links with the EU.
Business groups have voiced fears about maintaining complex supply chains stretching across the continent.
THE NO-DEAL OPTION
Britain would leave the EU on March 29 2019 without a withdrawal deal covering expats’ rights, the Irish border and the “divorce bill” and without agreement on future trade links.
The UK would trade on World Trade Organisation terms, which could involve the introduction of tariffs on many goods.
Some Brexiteers believe that Britain would no longer be obliged to pay its £40 billion financial settlement, though the EU could take legal action to enforce it.
Who supports it? Many committed Brexiteers, ranging from Mr Rees-Mogg and Mr Johnson to Ukip leader Gerard Batten, believe Britain has nothing to fear from a no-deal scenario.
Theresa May has always insisted that “no deal is better than a bad deal” but is not thought to relish the option.
Who opposes it? Chancellor Philip Hammond warns no-deal could set back progress on repairing the nation’s finances by 10 years, while the IMF says it would inflict “substantial” costs on the UK economy.
THE LABOUR OPTION
Labour wants Britain to remain in “a customs union” with the EU after Brexit, to ensure tariff-free access and frictionless trade with the remaining 27 members and to seek “full access” to the EU internal market an objective in Brexit negotiations.
Who supports it? Labour’s leadership, including Mr Corbyn and shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer, along with most of the party’s MPs.
THE PEOPLE’S VOTE OPTION
Offering voters a second referendum on whatever deal Mrs May reaches – or on the possibility of no deal – with the option to remain in the EU.
Campaigners insist that this would not be a straight re-run of the 2016 referendum, but a “people’s vote” in which voters would have the chance to pass their judgment in the light of all the new information which has emerged.
Who supports it? This is the official policy of the Liberal Democrats and Jeremy Corbyn is coming under increasing pressure to give Labour’s blessing to a vote.
Prominent figures in the Labour movement, including London mayor Sadiq Khan and the GMB’s general secretary Tim Roache, have voiced their support.
TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady says she will throw her weight behind a new vote if the proposed deal is bad for workers.
Who opposes it? Mrs May insists there will be no second vote, and the idea of a new referendum is dismissed by the vast majority on the Leave side, who insist that David Cameron made clear the 2016 ballot was a once-in-a-lifetime event.
