Peter Le Maistre said he believed there would be fluctuations – both upwards and downwards – in the cost of meat and vegetables, if Prime Minister Boris Johnson takes the UK out of the EU without a deal on 31 October.
He also said that Jersey’s government was advising farmers to stock up on supplies such as cattle feed, in case there is disruption to the Island’s supply chains.
The likelihood of no deal remains high, with Mr Johnson yesterday announcing plans to suspend the UK parliament until 17 days before the Brexit deadline. Critics claim that the move was made to force through a no-deal Brexit by giving MPs insufficient time to debate the matter.
Mr Le Maistre said he believed there was little chance of Jersey’s farming industry seeing major benefit from Brexit and he was concerned that food prices would destabilise.
‘I think that everyone realises that for the next three years if we have a no deal Brexit, there will be chaos in the sense of where the prices of goods would go,’ he said.
‘I think that we are lucky because our main export is potatoes and I don’t think the price of that would be affected a great deal, it might even go up a little bit.
‘But as far as other products go there would be chaos. In the UK they are terrified about sheep because most of them get exported. So, while people are talking about the price of food going up, the price of lamb could drop dramatically, if they are unable to export it to the EU.
‘It’s the same with beef. So meat and dairy products might go down. If we get a no deal things will settle down eventually but it will be chaos for quite a while in terms of pricing. People won’t be able to get their head around the pricing and tariffs and that will make things difficult.’
Mr Le Maistre said Jersey’s potato export industry was now less prone to disruption in supply chains because the exit date had been delayed from 31 March to 31 October.
‘We were very worried about the 31 March deadline. Literally, the next day we were starting the outdoor potato season,’ he said.
‘Everyone in the short term is trying to mitigate the effects of any disruption to the ports and the impact on exports. Fortunately, 1 November is a pretty dead time for potato exports and by next April things should have settled down.’
However, he added that some farmers were still being advised to make preparations for any supply shortages caused by backlogs at UK ports, particularly if there is no deal.
‘The government is telling growers, in particular the dairy industry, to make sure that they have a month’s worth of feed because there could be delays,’ he said.
‘I think that they are worried about the physical problems at the port. Portsmouth – certainly the part that Jersey uses – is not a big harbour.
‘The contingencies are that if Dover gets clogged up they will be shipping out from all along the south coast, including Portsmouth. And that’s the fear for Jersey.
‘A simple thing to do would be for Jersey lorries to have a Jersey sticker on them so they wouldn’t have to go through customs, rather than queuing up on the motorway.
‘The Government of Jersey has been doing work to make sure that this is in place. I think they have been working very hard on it.’
It emerged earlier this month that Jersey’s government has also arranged a stockpile of medical supplies, such as dressings and oxygen masks, as part of its ‘Day One No Deal Brexit’ preparations, working alongside the UK’s health authorities.
