The report, prepared by housing market analysts arc4, was commissioned by former Housing Minister Anne Pryke in 2017 but has been long delayed.
‘I saw it as an important piece of work to understand the housing needs across all sectors,’ Mrs Pryke said. ‘This included those who are in the private sector too.’
She said she believed it would be released and ready for the new Council of Ministers to tackle just after the election.
A recent FoI request revealed, however, that while the initial report was sent to Housing in July, it has only been discussed by a handful of officers and ministers in the six months since.
States Members are expected to be briefed on Thursday and the Objective Assessment of Housing Need Report will be published online at 3.30pm.
‘There is so much need for decent housing, especially affordable housing, for families,’ Mrs Pryke said. ‘We knew that, but actually having independent figures behind it is vital for planning purposes.’
She said she hoped the report’s release would add the support needed to keep a plan for Ann Court to be used as affordable housing – a development that has been shelved as the States considers re-allocating the land for civil servants’ offices – on track.
A letter from the managing director of arc4 obtained by the JEP, said ‘detailed demographic analysis’ has been carried out for the years 2021-30 on how the population will change and ‘how moderating net migration would impact on overall population growth and future housing need’.
While scant on details, the letter signed by arc4’s Dr Michael Bullock says demand for starter homes will continue to grow and 30% of dwellings built should be affordable. It recommends a ‘particular focus on delivering two- and three-bedroom homes’.
Former St Peter Constable John Refault, who has been advocating for a starter home scheme in that parish, said he hoped the report would highlight sufficient demand from local families to get the Ville de Manoir plan back on the agenda.
The scheme for 65 three-bedroom starter homes in St Peter was rejected last April, leaving over 200 hopeful families devastated, as it did not comply with the Island Plan.
The arc4 report is intended to help inform the drafting of the next Island Plan, which is due in 2021.
Mr Refault said that the Island’s housing needs have been grossly underestimated, as the Strategic Housing Unit uses the Housing Gateway to gauge demand – although he said that many staff within the unit did not even know where to find it.
At the moment there are 438 people on the Housing Gateway’s Band 5 waiting list to buy two-bedroom homes and 595 seeking three-bedroom homes.
Band 5 is for those who wish to purchase homes sold below the open market value, who need some form of assistance.
Too many families are living in increasingly unsuitable accommodation, Mr Refault added, and sometimes even having to live separately.
He said one family who came to him for help had their grandchildren sleeping in their living room. ‘They were having to go to bed at six at night so that the kids could be put to sleep on the lounge floor and the father was sofa-surfing at a friend’s place, so the family was split up,’ he said. ‘But, sadly, that is not unique.’
