Population now 105,500, but birth rate is falling

Population now 105,500, but birth rate is falling

But while there are more people living in the Island than ever before, there are fewer babies being born.

The overall population number rose by 1,300 last year but the number of births hit a 15-year low of 949. That’s 18 per cent lower than the mini baby boom year of 2012, when there were 1,123 births. Despite the decline in the number of births, during 2017 the population grew as a result of inward migration by 5,400 people.

As a result, Jersey’s crude birth rate – a figure given as number of births per 1,000 people – has fallen from a high of 11.3 in 2012 to nine – the lowest since 2001.

Statistician Sarah Davis said the reason for the drop in the number of babies being born in Jersey was unclear.

‘Over the longer term, we have seen a downward trend,’ she said. ‘It will be interesting to see what happens next year.

‘What is interesting with demographics, and especially with fertility, people seem to clump together. For example, the Baby Boom, so people didn’t have babies during the war and then they all suddenly had babies.

‘I don’t know what is going on here. I have been asking all kinds of people to try to find out if people are waiting to have children for any particular reason or if they are having smaller families. Who knows?’

With Jersey’s booming economy, the demand for incoming workers is still strong.

Last year, net inward migration was 1,200 people – a fall of 100 compared to 2016. Four hundred of those newcomers came in as licensed employees and their dependants, formerly known as J-Cats, and the remaining 800 were registered workers and their families.

Some industries are still begging for workers, however, according to the Jersey Chamber of Commerce president, Eliot Lincoln.

‘Our economy overall is running hot right now, so in some areas our inward migration is meeting needs, in other sectors, with high employment figures and the lowest ever unemployment figures, there are many job vacancies – particularly in the retail, hospitality and agriculture sectors, so it is a complex picture that you cannot generalise over,’ he said.

However, with Guernsey having released its first ever long-term population forecast this week, Mr Lincoln suggested there may be lessons for Jersey.

Guernsey’s population is expected to grow by just 2.6 percent to 64,000 by 2034 and then it is projected to gradually drop off.

Over that same period, the number of people in the workforce is expected to fall 0.4 per cent each year, while the number of people over the age of 85 will double.

This poses long-term challenges for Guernsey, according its chief minister Gavin St Pier.

The problems associated with a growing population may be preferable to those of falling one, added Mr Lincoln. And he suggested Guernsey’s work-permit system may have been a factor in its challenges.

‘One must look at Guernsey to see how their five-year permits may have been a significant factor in causing their population numbers to drop and that is a concern for any island population and its economy long term,’ he said. ‘Here we have the reverse. I think that the challenges of a growing population are preferable to those of a shrinking or stagnant population.

St John Constable and Assistant Chief Minister Chris Taylor said yesterday that he had been asked to work on the issue by Chief Minister John Le Fondré.

‘We need a sustainable way of managing migration so we deliver a good-quality future for all Islanders, while also supporting and working with business,’ he said.

With 105,500 people living on the Island’s 120 square kilometres last year, Jersey’s population density was 879 people per square kilometre – the 13th highest in the world.

Guernsey’s population density is 957 per square kilometre, the 12th highest in the world.

However, compared to the population density of the world’s largest cities, Jersey would fall 195th, similar to Wichita and a little higher than Abu Dhabi.

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