The protracted process of sorting and counting votes in Ireland’s General Election has begun, after an exit poll put the three main parties virtually neck and neck.
Sinn Fein held 21.1% of first-preference votes, narrowly ahead of current coalition partners Fine Gael and Fianna Fail at 21% and 19.5% respectively, according to the Ipsos B&A Exit Poll commissioned by RTE, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin.
It puts the two largest parties in the current coalition, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, on a combined 40.5%.
They must first be sorted before counting formally begins, in a process which could last days because of Ireland’s complex system of proportional representation with a single transferable vote (PR-STV), where candidates are ranked by preference.
It means the voting slips need to be counted several times, an undertaking which can last days.
However, a sense of the accuracy of the exit poll will begin to emerge as tally counters observe the sorting of the votes.
The final results will immediately kick-start government formation speculation, amid the suggestion of the exit poll that more than three parties may be needed to form a majority.
While the exit poll is indicative of the support base for the political parties, the final results will be determined by transfer votes, a key part of PR-STV.
The exit poll’s examination of voters’ second preferences put Fianna Fail and Fine Gael at 20% each, with Sinn Fein at 17%.
The inconclusive results mean that all eyes will now turn to the potential search for coalition partners.
Elsewhere, the exit poll showed: Social Democrats (5.8%), Labour (5%), Greens (4%), Aontu (3.6%), People Before Profit-Solidarity (3.1%), and Independent Ireland (2.2%). Independents and other candidates were on 14.6%.
There is a margin of error of 1.4%.
Matt Carthy, Sinn Fein’s director of elections, hailed his party’s “phenomenal” performance as a significant turnaround from the party’s disappointing showing in June’s local and European elections.
Míle Buíochas to everyone who voted for Sinn Féin today, endorsed Sinn Féin candidates and backed our message of change and hope.
A special thanks to our amazing activists who left it all on the pitch in this campaign.
We will always work to make life better for workers,… pic.twitter.com/QrEyyMm8fA
— Mary Lou McDonald (@MaryLouMcDonald) November 29, 2024
While refusing to be drawn on potential government formation, Mr Carthy said previous exit polls understated Sinn Fein’s performance by more than 2%.
Fianna Fail deputy leader Jack Chambers cautioned that the “three-way race” was within the margin of error of 1.4%.
Mr Chambers told RTE News: “We’re clearly in the mix with the other two parties.”
On the same broadcast, Fine Gael representative Damien English said the result was a “very solid performance” and predicted the party will return 37-38 seats.
Eighteen of the party’s 35 incumbents are not contesting the General Election, with incumbency historically considered an important factor in Irish politics.
The results of the exit poll suggest the arithmetic to form a majority may prove tricky, as the country’s several smaller parties and many independents potentially jockey for a place in government, possibly in a coalition made up of four parties.
The leaders of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have consistently ruled out entering into a coalition with Sinn Fein, citing substantial differences on policy.
Mr Chambers said “nothing has changed” in regard to Fianna Fail’s position of ruling out a coalition with Sinn Fein.
As such, Sinn Fein faces a much more challenging route to forming a government.
However, long-held and seemingly insurmountable political differences have eroded as recently as 2020, when the general election also delivered an inconclusive result.
Then, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, two parties forged from opposing sides of Ireland’s Civil War of the 1920s, agreed to set aside almost a century of animosity and share power for the outgoing coalition, after similar pledges against forming coalitions had been made before the final results.
The Greens joined the coalition as a junior partner.
In that election, Sinn Fein won the popular vote but a failure to run enough candidates meant it did not secure sufficient seats in the Dail to give it a realistic chance of forming a government.
This time around, party leader Mary Lou McDonald fielded many more candidates, in a vow not to repeat past mistakes, as she urged voters to elect a government of change without Fine Gael or Fianna Fail.
There are a total of 174 seats in the country’s parliament to be filled, more than ever before.
As the Ceann Comhairle, the speaker of the house, is automatically returned, 173 seats will be filled in the counting process.
Before the exit poll, Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman said his government partners will be looking for an “easier life” in a future government, and warned that this could result in “right-wing independents” or “small populist parties” padding out the numbers.
