- Jersey businesses are more optimistic about the future than at any point in the last six years
- States’ survey found that companies in construction and finance were both active
- However, some politicians have warned Islanders to be cautious about the apparent upturn
- Has Jersey turned a corner? Take part in our poll below
ISLAND businesses are seeing a burst of springtime optimism and are more confident about the future than at any point in the past six years, according to a survey.
Activity across all sectors is at its highest since the States Business Tendency Survey began in 2009, particularly in construction, with financial services also strongly positive in terms of profitability.
The responses to ten key questions, including employment prospects, are considerably more confident than the December survey, when there was an overall decline in business activity.
States chief statistician Duncan Gibaut said that the survey was ‘by far and away the most positive’ they had seen across all sectors, although there were still pockets of negativity.
In particular, costs of supplies, purchases, wages and salaries have increased for both the finance and non-finance sectors.
Although welcoming the overall positive upturn, senior ministers have responded with some caution.
Treasury Minister Alan Maclean said that the latest survey was continuing a general trend. ‘We have to be cautiously optimistic, but I think it’s encouraging that there is improvement across all of the sectors and across all aspects.
Referring to the retail and wholesale sector, the minister said that it was ‘not so positive’, perhaps due to the challenges of the internet and changes to consumer behaviour.
Senator Maclean said that the positive outlook for construction was no surprise. ‘The Fiscal Policy Panel has consistently advised us to get capital projects advanced, to support the economy, but we are also seeing private sector work coming in.
‘All in all, it is encouraging, but we have to continue to look at the trends as a series.’
The Senator added that a similar pattern was emerging in the UK, with the economy becoming increasingly robust. ‘We are beginning to see that here, but there is still a lot of work to do – unemployment is still too high.’
Economic Development Minister Lyndon Farnham said that he was still mindful that the environment continued to be ‘challenging’ and that it would not be easy to return to growth levels.
‘What I find particularly encouraging is that the new business and future employment indicators are positive for the first time, for some time. That cuts across all sectors.
‘It is early days, but there is tremendous investment going in, with the Jersey Innovation Fund and Digital Jersey, to encourage new start-ups. This is really the first indication, and although we have a long way to go it is a promising start.’
The survey, which is carried out by the States Statistics Unit every three months, asks managing directors or chief executives for their opinions on the current situation compared to the previous three months and for expectations for the next three months. Responses were received from 300 firms, accounting for 40% of private sector employment.
Jersey’s construction industry is thriving, with more than 1,200 homes in the pipeline in St Helier
Approved units:
- Gas Place – 285
- Westmount 242
- Fort DAuvergne 40
- JCG -159
- West Water 11
- Zephyrus – 58
- Le Coin – 23
Pending units:
- Grand Marche 183
- Hotel Metropole 174
- Ann Street Brewery – 19
SENATORS Lyndon Farnham and Alan Maclean say that they are cautiously optimistic following the publication today of the best business tendency results for six years.
Company bosses in finance, construction and several other sectors say that they expect to see growth in the coming months.
The Economic Development and Treasury Ministers are right that it might be a little early to crack open the champagne, but with non-finance sector new business and future employment indicators ‘significantly positive’ for the first time since 2009, there is cause for some relief if nothing else.
Ministerial reticence stems, to some degree, from the fact that costs – including those associated with labour – are still rising.
For some months now, national news reports have been heralding the return to growth of the UK economy, and where the UK leads Jersey has tended to follow.
Earlier this year, the Fiscal Policy Panel, the three independent experts employed by the States to give economic advice, said that the Island would see growth into 2016. But the road to recovery is still stretching out beyond the horizon. It is the private sector which will pull Jersey back to growth and secure a recovery not yet realised. The positive noises being made by business leaders are very encouraging. Ministers must help create the right environment for companies to flourish.
