Economy: Growth unlikely until next year, or even 2015

THERE is a ‘fairly negative’ outlook for the Island’s economy over the next couple of years, according to one of the ‘three wise men’ who assess Jersey’s finances.

Marian Bell, a member of the Fiscal Policy Panel
Marian Bell, a member of the Fiscal Policy Panel

THERE is a ‘fairly negative’ outlook for the Island’s economy over the next couple of years, according to one of the ‘three wise men’ who assess Jersey’s finances.

Marian Bell, who is a member of the Fiscal Policy Panel, spoke to members of the Jersey branch of the Institute of Directors this week and said that growth was unlikely to return until next year or 2015 at the earliest.

However, Mrs Bell, who was a former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Panel that sets UK interest rates, said the panel was supportive of States policies to pump money into the economy to try and boost growth.

Comments for: "Economy: Growth unlikely until next year, or even 2015 "

Realist

Am I the only one who is a little concerned, that there is no sentiment of public sector staff cuts, or have a short to medium plan to cut wages/job loses (including pensions!) for all the public sector. Why not increase working hours by 30 minutes a day and get rid of holiday leave for working an hour a day extra. Capital expenditure is a good idea, but for the love of god the budget for this hospital will destroy the economy. The island needs to rapidly deploy legislation to protect the interests of islanders through an immigration policy. We must ensure that no unemployed person is unemployed through choice, and that low skilled jobs are not filled by said unemployed. Basic basic maths. This island needs to recalibrate and stop building flats.

paul

and the states would borrow the money from where?

Mario

Just print it like other countries do.

;)

James Wiley

Economics 101: The States of Jersey can't do that, the States of Jersey do not have any gold. The States of Jersey cannot issue currency as they have nothing to back it with.

All we do have is a bank account with British Pounds in.

fiat money

I'm afraid you don't need anything to back money these days James. The days when you needed gold are long gone. Look up "fiat money" on wiki.

James Wiley

But you do at least need your own currency...

I disagree all central banks not only hold gold, but they are actively buying more (except the UK and the US).

Every ounce of GB gold now equates to £97,000 in circulation, so when we go back to a gold standard, as invariably happens and will probably happen within the next ten years, then stand by for astronomical inflation, overnight.

By comparison every ounce of US gold equates to just $19,000.

Every ounce of EU gold equates to just EUR 6,000

As from March 2012 the States of Jersey are now allowed to stockpile gold, as I believe was widely called for by one of the candidates at the last election, but are they doing it?

If it were me I would convert those GBP to EUR and have Jersey Euros instead of Jersey Pounds.

Overpopulated

I agree, the government needs to cut civil servants, but start with the over paid ones - the huge number of people all employed by Financial Services - I bet not one of them gets under £100k

Stop getting rid of people who do useful jobs like picking up the rubbish our population throw everywhere

And them we have the welfare system - how many £100s of millions if that now costing?

How soon before our feckless government starts borrowing?

fiat money

They are already borrowing. It's called PFI.

James Wiley

There are already more unfunded future liablities (aka pensions both state and public sector) which can never be met.

The SS fund will run out by 2030 according to States of Jersey estimates.

Anyone under 53 paying Social Security is therefore being de-frauded. Money is being collected on a promise of a future return which the people who are collecting the money know they cannot fulfil.

Will any of our politicians take the necessary but unpopular steps to reign in this express train to disaster?

Ozouf isn't getting elected at the next election anyway and his place in history is not looking to be a rosy one.

So why he doesn't sort things out now is beyond me, he is not getting re-elected anyway so has nothing to lose there, but he could still rescue his family's name by doing what needs to be done and actually sorting out the finances of the States of Jersey Inc.

Otherwise let them go en desastre and we'll choose a new form of government.

get your facts right

Sorry James, you are wrong. The Public Sector pension scheme is not unfunded. An actuarial valuation takes place periodically which ensures that if there is a deficit the inflation linking is adjusted downwards to ensure that all obligations can be met.

James Wiley

I said unfunded future liabilities; we are talking maybe ten to fifteen years in the future, not next year.

The pension scheme cannot meet its obligations and so lessens those obligations by increasing the payments by less than inflation (and less than the inflation the statistics unit calculates and so much, much less than real inflation). It has already done this for a couple of years.

How is that different to it being unfunded?

With baby boomers only just retiring how much longer do you think it will be until they have to start lowering the payment in actual terms and not just in real terms?

Just the same as the SS fund will run out, so will the public sector scheme.

States workers are suffering a double fraud, their money is being taken under false pretences.

James Wiley

I would love to see a reduction in the size of the economy of Jersey, if the reduction was in the size and scope of government.

What is so fantastic about growth if it comes at the cost of our freedoms, happiness and liberties?

TIm South

A very nice lady no doubt, but Jersey has an expensive Treasury department, Economics department, Statistics department and a JFSC that has an overall view on the finance industry.

Nothing at all personal , but this expensive panel of consultants is nice but not at all needed, after over three years continuously in the job.

It would be good Government to publish exactly what this panel has cost ? And as they are UK based how much the expenses have cost taxpayers since they started.

Then we can be told what difference they have made to Jerseys failing wealth, no growth, and rising unemployment numbers let alone businesses failing.

That is on the proviso that Jersey has a good Government.

Time to shake hands say thank you and goodbye.

Tim.

Jersey more than enough for now

If it wasn't for the small matter of copyright, I would cut and paste all these pictures of these high flying Jersey gravy train riders and start my own glossy magazine.

Not many days pass without us being presented with a well paid pundit on some matter or another.

It's handy to know who you are passing in King street or, more importantly, sitting near in a restaurant and about to pontificate about the economy or a States department. That's the only reason I ever read 'Jersey Now'.